NASA has officially ruled out asteroid 2024 YR4 as a major impact threat to Earth in the foreseeable future, thanks to refined calculations based on new observational data. Initially, the asteroid had a small but notable chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, as astronomers continued tracking its trajectory, experts at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) determined that the asteroid poses no significant risk to our planet for at least the next century.
2024 YR4’s Earth impact probability over time (credit: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies)
The latest analysis has significantly reduced uncertainties regarding 2024 YR4’s future path, confirming that the asteroid’s possible positions on December 22, 2032, will be farther away from Earth than previously estimated. While the risk to our planet has been effectively eliminated, scientists note that there remains a small 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon on that date.
NASA’s planetary defense teams continue to monitor the asteroid closely, using ground-based observatories funded by the agency’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office. In March, the James Webb Space Telescope will observe 2024 YR4 to gather further data on its size and composition, providing valuable insights for future studies.
Recent observations have steadily reduced the likelihood of an Earth impact. Data collected on February 19-20 lowered the probability to just 0.28%, while the chances of a Moon impact slightly increased to 1%. The newly refined trajectory models have been incorporated into NASA JPL’s automated Sentry page, which tracks potential impact risks from near-Earth objects.
The ability to continuously refine asteroid trajectories showcases the effectiveness of NASA’s planetary defense initiatives. Despite 2024 YR4 no longer posing a major threat, its discovery and subsequent tracking served as a valuable test for NASA’s planetary defense strategies, providing researchers with an opportunity to assess detection, tracking, and risk assessment processes in real-time.
NASA remains committed to monitoring near-Earth objects and improving its ability to predict potential hazards. The latest data on 2024 YR4 and other tracked asteroids can be accessed through NASA’s automated Sentry system, ensuring up-to-date information on any evolving risks.
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